Pastor Zulu and an AIDS victim
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HIV/AIDS Zambia
Zambia reported 15,000 AIDS cases in 1991. By 1993 and 1994 AIDS had become
the second major cause of mortality among adults in hospitals at 14 percent of the
total deaths. In 1998, the estimated national adult (15 – 49 years old) prevalence rate
was 19.7 percent. By 2000, it was estimated that 650,000 Zambians, out of a
population of approximately 9.1 million, would have died thus far in the epidemic. If
current trends continue, 1.6 million more may die before the year 2015.
Since the beginning of AIDS, tuberculosis case rates have increased five-fold to more
than 40,000 in 1996. By the year 2014, it is estimated that the number of new cases
each year attributable to HIV infection alone will exceed 41,500. By any standard
this is an enormous burden of disease for the population of Zambia.
There are, however, some hopeful indications. The prevalence of HIV positive tests in
15-19 year-old youths has dropped over most of the country between 1994 and 1998.
In Lusaka, for example, while the rate was 28 percent in 1993, it had dropped to 15
percent in 1998. At the same time the overall prevalence of positive tests in the whole
population appears to be stable and is not increasing. This has been attributed to
behaviour changes. The recent Sexual Behaviour Survey has documented further
evidence of behaviour changes. Although the current burden of infection will
continue to impact Zambia for many years, it is hopeful that the tide may be turning.
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